El Nino event looms, authorities must prepare to limit impact

writing pen1
  • An El Niño event is expected to develop from November this year, according to international weather and climate forecasting centres. While the resulting weather conditions are not expected to be as intense as in 2015-2016, Myanmar can expect a warm and dry summer next year. It is imperative that local governments prepare to limit the impact of any El Niño recurrence.
    According to weather experts, El Niño brings extreme temperatures and poses severe problems, including unusual rainfall patterns, acute water shortage, and diseases for a country.
    A prolonged drought can compromise not only freshwater supplies and food security, but can also have a cascading impact on public health, the economy, and food distribution.
    In mid-November, an above normal sea surface temperature was recorded near the Equator in the East Central Tropical Pacific Ocean. As per forecasts, the mean sea surface temperature is expected to rise from November to January, and give rise to weak to moderate El Niño conditions over the Central Tropical Pacific Ocean.
    The El Niño conditions will prevail till May 2019 and then gradually decrease, according to international weather and climate forecasting centres.
    The percentage of El Niño condition is likely to be 84% during November, December, and January. It may likely to decrease 75% (January-February-March), and 57% (March, April and May), according to the Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Monitoring Centre.
    Myanmar experienced El Niño weather in 2015-2016 winter and 2016 summer. The 2015-16 El Niño was one of the strongest ever recorded, and had an impact on global temperatures, with 2016 entering the record books as the warmest year.
    The World Meteorological Organization has said that while it does not expect the anticipated El Niño to be as strong as it was in 2015-2016, but it will still have a considerable impact. It also said advance prediction of the event can help save lives and reduce economic losses considerably.
    An El Niño recurrence this year would mean drier-than-normal conditions during the post-monsoon season in Myanmar. Therefore, it is important to take necessary measures to guarantee the socioeconomic status of the people, including farmers, as agricultural output and fishery exports are likely be affected by an El Niño weather event.
    The people of Myanmar must work with the regional governments and non-governmental organizations to limit the impact of a new El Niño effect.
Share this post
Hot News
Hot News